Carlos Sainz and the 2040 target: It's not about fitness, it's a bet on the 2026 regulation reset

When Carlos Sainz said he could keep racing in F1 until 2040, fans split into two camps: those who nodded, drawing comparisons with Fernando Alonso – still scoring points at 45 – and those who shook their heads, dismissing it as a hollow statement from a driver just pushed out of Ferrari. Both readings miss the point. Sainz's declaration is not about how many years he wants to stay in the sport, but about whether Williams – a team struggling at the back of the grid – can deliver a competitive car for the 2026 season to turn that ambition into reality. Sainz turned 32, is in his 12th F1 campaign, and has 4 Grand Prix victories – all of them with Ferrari. But he currently sits 16th in the drivers' championship, a position that reflects Williams' weakness more than his ability. Speaking to Motorsport.com, Sainz said he believes he can race until 45, citing his father – Carlos Sainz Sr. – winning the Dakar at 61, and emphasized that physical condition, mental state, and enjoyment are factors he manages well. He acknowledged that the current 24-race calendar is a lot, but that is part of the job. The context of this statement matters more than the statement itself. Sainz is at a career inflection point. Replaced by Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari, he moved to Williams – a team rebuilding under James Vowles. Williams currently sits at the back, with good one-lap pace but weak race pace, a structural issue that has persisted for several seasons. In this context, Sainz committing to a long-term F1 future reads more like a market positioning signal: he wants to tell teams that he is a stable, long-term investment, not a short-term rental. What is striking is that the driver market is shifting in a direction that favors Sainz's thesis. This season's grid features five drivers over 35: Alonso (45), Hamilton (41), Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, and Sergio Perez. Hamilton became the oldest race winner since 2026 at 41, and Alonso the oldest points scorer since 2026 at 45. Cadillac – the new team entering in 2026 – chose Bottas and Perez, both over 35, over younger alternatives. This trend shows that teams are valuing experience over potential. But there is a technical variable Sainz cannot control: the 2026 regulation reset. The new power unit and chassis rules will introduce active aerodynamics and a higher electrification ratio. If the 2026 cars are lighter and physically easier to drive, driver longevity could be extended. If the new cars are faster and more physically demanding, the 45-year-old target becomes far harder. This is the biggest question, and no one has an answer right now. A counter-intuitive angle: Sainz's talk about fitness and mentality could be his way of protecting himself from skepticism. Being dropped by Ferrari, he needs to project the image of a confident driver with a long-term plan. But his answer about motivation – "Right now, yes" – carries subtle hedging. The motivation is currently there, but the conditional phrasing implies it could change. When you are driving an uncompetitive car, maintaining your spirit is a daily battle. Sainz also faces a historical reality: very few drivers have raced beyond 42. Alonso and Hamilton are exceptions, not the rule. Sainz's 2040 target, if realized, would place him in the extreme tail of career longevity distribution. But there is a key difference: Alonso and Hamilton still had cars capable of fighting for wins or podiums at the tail end of their careers. Sainz does not have that at Williams right now. And any long-term plan collapses if you don't have a competitive car. The pivotal question: Can the Williams contract and the 2026 reset sustain the motivation of a driver who won 4 races with Ferrari? Sainz says he wants to stay in F1 "as long as I can." But history shows that driver patience often erodes faster than their fitness. Williams' 2026 car will be the answer. For a team with resources and ambition like Williams, that could be a door to a new era. But if that door closes, the 2040 target will be just a nice story for interviews. And when that happens, fans will remember: numbers never lie, but those who read reports do. A driver's value lies not in his legs, but in how he is valued. We are watching a long game in the midfield, where money and technical decisions will decide the fate of a talent looking for an exit.